How fair by-elections can happen under STV — a new system
Download the abridged paper here
—
To: The political parties of Northern Ireland
How fair by-elections can happen under STV - a new system
Scott Moore
Monday 12th April, 2021
Currently in Northern Ireland, when a Councillor or MLA dies, resigns or otherwise vacates their seat, their party appoints (co-opts) a replacement. Or, in the case of an independent, a substitute is selected from a list provided in advance.
At one point, a fifth of MLAs in the Assembly had been co-opted, rather than having been elected. It is not unlikely that politicians have resigned who would have not done so if it meant their party would face a by-election, and the risk of losing the seat.
When a Westminster MP vacates their seat, it is filled via a first-past-the-post by-election, with the same method used for Council seats in Britain, and for constituency seats in other devolved assemblies.
Dáíl Eireann uses ordinary STV by-elections, but these can unfairly change the political balance of a constituency mid-term, giving a disproportionate advantage to the largest parties in a constituency — which is why Northern Ireland, to date, has preferred co-option.
From 2011 to 2016, roughly 20% of MLAs vacated their seats, compared to around 2% of MPs from 2010 to 2015 (excluding politicians who died). The fact that MLAs do not have to face a by-election when they vacate their seats, and that the Assembly has a far higher rate of mid-term resignations, is no coincidence.
In general, a politician should serve their full term unless they have a necessary reason for resigning — they should not resign purely for career-related reasons.
Today (Monday 12th April), I’m publishing a paper, A method for holding fair by-elections in single transferable vote systems. It proposes a modified version of STV which would allow for fair by-elections to be held for Assembly and District Council seats, and solve the problems affecting ordinary STV in by-elections, giving each party a level playing field and removing the disproportionate advantage for larger parties.
When a politician vacates their seat, voters should elect a replacement through a by-election, rather than party officials or members deciding instead. However, this should be subject to the ability of a by-election to produce a fair and democratic result. I do not believe ordinary STV meets that criterion — but that my method, at the very least, provides the basis for a system which does.
I call on all political parties in Northern Ireland to support a review of the co-option procedure, and to consider whether my proposed system would provide the basis for by-elections to be held instead for Assembly and District Council seats that are vacated here.
Yours sincerely,
Scott Moore
—